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greetings from Germany to the community. It's our common requirement to forecast nightly conditions. Therefoe we all use diffent apps. I personally use meteoblue and clearoutside. Many apps are based on the same models. I'm not sure if I'm wrong but for me it seems they are getting less concrete than in former times. I don't talk about 5 day forecast. At least I would be happy to see the upcomming night. My observation is: looking in the past never fails :-). Looking in the next 12h can be a lucky game, particular the cloud conditions. Of cause I'm not talking about very stable weather conditions. I'm talking about summer conditions (Germany site). I heard by rumor that through the changed situation in air traffic because of geopolitic sanctions and also change of the climate (Jetstreams) the mathematical modells are getting less satisfying. Planes are collecting data too. Any knowlede on this? What apps are you using? Clear Sky to everyone! Ralph |
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| I am having the best luck with Astrospheric at the moment. It seems to usually give me a reasonably accurate cloud forecast for at least 12-24 hours in advance. It is only available for North America though (based on Canadian meteorological data). |
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Hi Ralph, CO2 and earth warming brings more and more energy to our atmosphere. Outcome is the loss of stable weather. That makes weather forecast more complicated, in some years perhaps impossible. This is my opinion and expirience. CS Frank |
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Hi Ralph, I use Clearoutside which is usually quite accurate down to one hour range. But I also use an app called "Nightshift". It has a little neat feature - allows you to see a satellite view of the cloud cover movement above your area. So with this info on top of Clearoutside, I am able to predict my local seeing conditions quite precisely. Hope this helps! CS David |
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I believe we have to live with the fact that a forecast for cloud coverage is even more difficult than a normal weather forecast. Even if you get the trend right changing wind conditions may let the clouds arrive somewhat earlier or later. In general I look at meteoblue and clearoutside too. In case they agree my experience is that you can rely on the result. If they disagree it gets tricky because I wouldn't claim that any of them is more reliable than the other. Usually if one of them predicts good conditions I prepare for the session and then decide in the evening based on my own look at the sky. In general I'm quite happy with these two services. What I would wish for is in addition to percentage of cloud coverage to get additional info about what type of clouds to expect. 30% coverage with nice compact cumulus clouds still leave you plenty of space in between to catch some targets, with 30% cirrus you can just forget about any imaging or star gazing. But maybe this is even more difficult to predict? I believe getting surprised by the weather in a positive or negative way is part of this hobby. I don't think that geopolitics influences the mathematical models but I'm open to learn that I'm wrong. Since climate change increases the energy in the atmosphere which results in increased dynamics - by the way one of the reasons why "global warming" can lead to colder winters and heavier snow storms in some regions - it's quite possible that predictions get less reliable. Clear skies Wolfgang |
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If you are lucky to live in the range of the CMC's high resolution model then it tends to be pretty accurate a few days out, even next to the mountains. The GFS used to be the cream of the crop, but for whatever reason its been struggling lately - although I say that more in regards to tropical weather which I follow as well. Sometimes people sponsor the Euro model on some cleardarksky charts, and it tends to overestimate cloud coverage, while the CMC can sometimes underestimate cloud coverage especially if the sky is expected to be patchy. This is the range of the high res. CMC model.  |
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Hi Ralph, I use this app called 'Windy' on my android phone. It is not made specifically for predicting astronomical seeing, like clear outside, but provides 5 different weather forecast models for your specific area which you can check and compare. The other features like satellite images to see cloud movement, pressure, wind, rain, snow prediction etc are also there. I am using the free version of the app but there is a pro version of the app. There is lot of customization you can adopt depending on your requirement. Generally, I tend to go with whatever majority of models are predicting and found it to be fairly accurate. Clear skies! Rajat |
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David Nozadze: David, thanks for the hint to that sexy app. CS Frank |
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I‘m using meteoblue and I find that it’s very reliable. It’s not just the prediction that matters but also if one knows how to read the predictions. What makes meteoblue suitable IMHO is that they are very transparent in their predictions: if you’re using the multi model predictions, you can assess how far ahead a model/simulation is looking. In addition you can see by how much the models agree. E.g., If they split 50/50, it will (a) tell you that there’s uncertainty and the odds can be estimated. Another source is the satellite film that should help a lot for short term assessments. Regarding geopolitics: yes it matters. If you don’t exchange measurement data, your lacking input for your models. Björn |
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While browsing for the CMC model I found this nice link: The list of all the world's major weather models - Windy.app Clear skies Wolfgang |
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Hi Ralph, I live in Belgium and use a bunch of apps and websites to check. Like [url=/users/kuechlew/]kuechlew[/url] says, i compare the data these alle give me. For instance i always check clearoutside first with meteoblue aswel. Then i check the wheater app from the royal meteo institute from Belgium, called K.M.i. If the data these give me is equal, i go check a couple of websites. For example, sat24 and wolkenradar.nl for cloudcoverage. i my humble opinion there is not 1 to rule them all. Clearoutside has been "wrong" many many times, aswel as the kmi app. And on tv i always check the regional channel for the local wheaterforcast. They are mostly right  hope it helps greetings |
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| https://telescopius.com/ works pretty good for me!!! |
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Looking outside is the best. I have used several and they all lack when it comes to cloud cover, the one and only thing I worry about. Outside of just looking and watching, using a satellite view. AS to the global warming person, I seriously get it, global warming is bad, we need to do something about it, but weather forecasting has never been good, weatherman are like baseball players except with a worse average. Global warming OMG SMH. Have to admit it was a good read! |
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I use Meteoblue for forecast - https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/outdoorsports/seeing/otisville_united-states_5130102 I use GOES EAST for realtime cloud cover - https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=96 Steve |
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| I use Ventusky in combination with Meteoblue. Both are very accurate. |
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Clearoutside and Meteoblue Nearly 100% reliable when they agree. When they don't agree you can look at the data in Meteoblue and make a decision. CS |
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I would suggest you first try to understand your own conditions from what forecasts you have available--look at forecasts and then go out and look at the sky. I don't think there is any one best solution, it depends a lot on where you are located, and for sure each forecast has its own bias. So I look at many forecasts for different sources to plan ahead, from experience I found some predict too much cloud, some predict too clear. You will have better luck if all your forecasts agree--but that is not that common. But in the end I mostly depend on the satellite IR view, which is usually about 20 to 30 minutes behind realtime--I look for the movement of the clouds around my location, and watch carefully to see how the clouds are evolving as they move toward my location--are the clouds are breaking up as they move in, or they are closing in? You might see horrible clouds coming but they are disappearing as they get closer, which is great, or it looks clear, but clouds are popping out of nowhere locally, which is not good. It seems to me any published forecast is not very up to date. They say it is still cloudy when it has cleared up and vice versa, and the forecasts are not nearly local enough--it can be clear 20 km away and totally clouded over locally, so I can predict much better by watching the satellite images progress in the evening before it gets dark. You get to have a feeling for it eventually. Rick |
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The most accurate weather app/tool I've seen is a the good old fashion weather rock. Never lies.. 100% accurate. Joking aside.. the little weather app on my phone.. is pretty good. Pretty sure it gets its data from weather underground. I also use a satellite map. It's not always accurate.. but its the weather. |
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| Clearoutside is usually pretty good 12 hours out. I always check Windy for a more detailed cloud cover forecast. |
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I once read that if you always predict the current day's weather for the next day, you'll get an 80 percent hit rate. If that's true, this method is more accurate for my location than the many weather apps I use. I suspect the accuracy of the forecast depends a lot on the local conditions. I live on the edge of a range of hills, and here the forecast is accurate less than 50 percent of the time (yes, I keep records on this). Often the apps even give an incorrect current weather, and sometimes the information is even wrong for the previous night. I think the speculation that the current political situation or climate change has a noticeable effect on the accuracy of weather forecasts is daring. Or can anyone prove that with statistically significant data? |
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Dear Olaf and the rest of the communicy, thanks for all your statements and experiences. I collected further informations and indeed it was stated that the forecast is created by 80% by satellits, 10% by airplanes and 10% by terrestic stations. Ralph |
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| I've also found windy to be extremely accurate. I particularly like the cloud model forecast. I use the android app every time I intend to get out and image and its rarely wrong in the 24 hour forecast period. |
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| Agree with everything said by everyone above. All great apps and recommendations. In my more limited experience, all of the predictive models, regardless of where you are or what device/app/model that you use, nothing beats using those tools as a guidance as to when it is worth looking outside and preparing to shoot. I will use the models to determine if it is worth setting up the gear, then go out 30 minutes before I would customarily start thinking about polar alignment and assess whether conditions merit go or no go. I use Astrospheric and Clear Outside here in the Midwest, then look at real-time radar models, then decide. However, nothing beats looking with your own eyes though as you get to go/no-go decision time. It is not unusual for models to suggest suboptimal conditions yet find clear skies, and at other times, models predict clear skies only to find clouds. |
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Hi, I use ClearOutside, but I dislike the app version, so I use it in the laptop or in the desk mode in the mobile device (smartphone). I also use a weather app called Yr. https://www.yr.no/en You can find your location, see the forecast for 9 days (of course the more close to your target day, the more accurate prediction will be) and also click on the day you want and see hour by hour forecast. I think is Norwegian, but it works really fine for my location in Spain. Meteoblue is not used for me. I have it, but I don't use it. Another one that I've read is a good one is Xasteria app, but again I don't use it. Windy is a good one. At the end, I use all together to combine the information. With Clearoutside I try to begin to planing 3 days before and is specially useful (as Windy app) few hours before the astronomy session and then to have an idea of what can I expect in the whole night. Greetings and clear skies! |
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Hallo Ralph, very well observed - I am observing a similar discrepancy between the forecast and the actual weather at that time. I am using three different forecasting apps and most of the time, all three are wrong, at least not really right. Also in my opinion, it used to be better in the past. I started to make up my mind myself by looking out of the window in the afternoon and checking the forecasts and then comparing my observation with what is written and published. Often, I am right regarding the local weather, not always, but often. And to be fair - the weather itself has changed also - the predictability is based on historical data and historical trends and I think, that due to the global weather change and warming, most streams have changed as well and the metereologists do not yet have enough data and experience to get to a higher hit quote. CS Georg (from Austria) |
